Weather and climate experts have warned that 2026 could be one of the hottest years on record globally, with the expected conditions likely to bring heavier-than-normal rainfall across East African countries, including Rwanda, over the next four months.
The warning was issued at a regional climate outlook forum that began in Kigali on August 17, 2026.
The forum is held three times a year ahead of each rainy season to assess regional weather forecasts and provide information that can support planning by countries across the region through a coordinated approach.
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El Niño Expected to Influence Rainfall
The Director General of the Rwanda Meteorology Agency, Gahigi Aimable, said the upcoming autumn rainy season in the region is expected to be influenced by El Niño, a climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off the coasts of Peru and Chile.
“The effects are felt across the world, but they vary from one region to another. In some areas, rainfall increases, while in others it decreases. Its effects have already become evident, such as in Europe, where high temperatures have claimed lives in recent days. In our region, El Niño is associated with increased rainfall,” he said.
Gahigi added that the two-day forum would also present a detailed regional climate outlook, including statistical projections, but said the main expectation was for above-normal rainfall.
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East Africa Faces Above-Normal Rainfall
Dr Nicholas Savage, an expert from the UK Met Office, said 2026 could go down in history as one of the hottest years ever recorded.
“2026 is expected to rank among the four hottest years in recorded history, and there is a strong possibility that it will be among the top two hottest years. This will be driven by rising global temperatures and the El Niño phenomenon, which is associated with warmer conditions. This year, we could also experience extreme heat similar to what was recorded in 1998, 2016 and 2023, which were years characterised by strong El Niño events,” he said.
The expert said forecasts indicate that several countries in the region face a 90% probability of receiving above-normal rainfall in October, November and December 2026, with some areas expected to receive between 300 and 400 millimetres or more.
The affected countries include Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania and parts of Uganda. In some areas, rainfall could occur continuously for between 10 and 15 days
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Rwanda Urged to Prepare for Possible Disasters
The Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Environment, Bingwa Fidele, said Rwanda is committed to using weather information to take early action, particularly in anticipation of heavy rainfall that could trigger disasters.
Bingwa said climate information should not only be used for forecasting but should also serve as a basis for decisions aimed at protecting lives, agriculture and infrastructure.
“We must use the information coming from this forum, as well as other information provided by national institutions that monitor weather and climate conditions, to move beyond simply forecasting weather patterns and prepare for the potential impacts they may cause,” he said.
He stressed that such efforts cannot be achieved by countries working independently, but require regional cooperation in sharing information and strengthening early warning systems for communities.
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